Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 3.675508 4.395490 5.197232 6.153023 7.258075 8.492086 9.970802
2025-04-13 2.477507 3.393327 4.533549 6.042631 7.970666 10.333263 13.426763
2025-04-20 1.953388 3.000135 4.429709 6.488030 9.331933 13.072983 18.306328
2025-04-27 1.530923 2.607037 4.202439 6.673386 10.321316 15.410712 22.924232
2025-05-04 1.251921 2.338805 4.071417 6.929811 11.393925 17.935180 28.029179
2025-05-11 0.996870 2.036892 3.813597 6.923250 12.037722 19.872620 32.451312
2025-05-18 0.768783 1.718494 3.455810 6.676177 12.241147 21.130692 35.938587
2025-05-25 0.585345 1.431924 3.089062 6.337123 12.221885 22.001444 38.862718
2025-06-01 0.473967 1.259544 2.894488 6.262363 12.622936 23.561985 42.988477
2025-06-08 0.385590 1.111794 2.715992 6.181626 12.988786 25.077204 47.141196
2025-06-15 0.348021 1.073056 2.754066 6.526750 14.170842 28.091054 54.046132
2025-06-22 0.296131 0.983091 2.662022 6.587781 14.809472 30.184027 59.498915
2025-06-29 0.247444 0.889203 2.547659 6.595295 15.366847 32.221317 65.096867
2025-07-06 0.205107 0.799708 2.425866 6.568726 15.855655 34.182688 70.731575
2025-07-13 0.193416 0.800919 2.532432 7.082269 17.530845 38.543473 81.107169
2025-07-20 0.170496 0.757741 2.513785 7.295058 18.581496 41.769580 89.572506
2025-07-27 0.153016 0.727208 2.523149 7.576804 19.811591 45.443085 99.132412
2025-08-03 0.129173 0.663882 2.425279 7.571407 20.391010 47.841852 106.374559
2025-08-10 0.102720 0.578138 2.239819 7.304884 20.331785 48.911755 111.059588
2025-08-17 0.079289 0.492624 2.031858 6.938346 19.984826 49.335791 114.461324
2025-08-24 0.065615 0.444158 1.932177 6.857523 20.322875 51.252134 121.028164
2025-08-31 0.054175 0.400195 1.836189 6.770176 20.631980 53.123547 127.613984
2025-09-07 0.050792 0.397733 1.889953 7.143596 22.166386 57.841724 140.480298